India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) first official long-range forecast predicts a normal South-West (SW) monsoon (June-September) for the country in 2011. This is the first of the two-stage forecast that IMD releases for SW monsoon; a detailed update will follow in June, presenting breakdown of seasonal rainfall over four geographical regions.
However, in the past, there have been several instances of large deviations between IMD’s projected and actual rainfall.
